Monday, October 06, 2008

and the lateset poll results show...

As we all found out in 2000, the winner of the presidential election is not always the candidate with the most votes. That's of course the reason that so much attention is paid to state by state battles for the electoral votes that each state has.

Well, I don't know about you, but I have trouble keeping up with who's leaning toward Obama and who's is a sure thing for the McCain camp. That's why I was interested in the web site http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5 . One of their many maps and charts is show here (as of 10/4/08):

It's not just a map of the averages of recent polls but it is also an interactive map that you can use to plot "what if" when you hear of significant changes or believe their numbers do not represent what will happen on election day. For example, suppose you have inside information that Utah is going to swing to Obama because of some scary things that Palin has said (yeah, and hell is going to freeze over November 4). You can click on Utah and make that change. For argument's sake we'll say that Idaho also moves into the Democrat camp (just barely). Record that with a click on Idaho.

Now you have the following map:

This small change puts Obama over the top (and gives the states of Utah and Idaho unprecedented influence in the new administration). But more important, it gives you a feel for the importance of battles in the various states.

This web site has much, much more in terms of state and federal races and the latest information on them. There are time charts showing the popularity of certain candidates or office holders over time. It is just a fun site to visit.

Another site with a similar interactive map can be found at:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htm
This map has less information about how the default settings were obtained but if it supports your feelings, go with it.

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